France goes to the polls today for the first round of the suddenly called parliamentary elections by President Emmanuel Macron. It is a gamble that could plunge the country into deep uncertainty.
The French elect their 577 representatives to the Assemble Nationale, which will determine the future of Macron’s second term.
A new majority of MPs opposed to Macron would force him to appoint a political opponent as prime minister, which would radically change France’s domestic policy and cloud its foreign policy. If a clear majority does not emerge, the country could face months of unrest or political deadlock. Macron, who has ruled out resigning, can only call new parliamentary elections after a year.
A broad alliance of left-wing parties could take second place. The centrist Renaissance party of Macron and his allies is expected to lose many seats.
1. Voting will take place in two rounds and turnout is expected to be high
France’s 577 constituencies – one for each seat – include the mainland, overseas departments and territories and French citizens living abroad. In each district, the seat is awarded to the candidate who receives the most votes.
In each district, any number of candidates can participate in the first round, but there are specific thresholds to reach the second round, which takes place a week later on July 7.
In most cases, the two candidates with the most votes advance in the second round. Whoever receives the most votes in that round wins the race.
But there are exceptions.
A candidate who receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round wins outright, as long as those votes represent at least one-fourth of the registered voters in that district.
In some districts, three or even four candidates can participate in the runoff if they each receive a number of votes equal to at least 12.5% of registered voters.
Both scenarios have been rare in recent years, but they are more likely with a high turnout like the one expected for Sunday.
2. The rise of the extreme right, a strong left-wing alliance and a shrinking center
The goal for each party and its allies is to win enough seats to form a working majority. If none of them succeed, France could face months of political turmoil or stalemate.
But if Macron ends up in opposition in the National Assembly, he would be forced to appoint a prime minister and a government from a different political party, who would then determine domestic policy. Presidents traditionally retain control over foreign policy and defense matters in such scenarios, but the Constitution does not always provide clear guidelines.
Rassemblement National has a comfortable lead in the latest polls, with the support of around 36% of voters. After decades of living on the margins, the far-right, anti-immigrant and Eurosceptic party has never been closer to ruling France.
The alliance of socialists, greens, communists and the radical left party La France Insoumise is in second place in the polls, with around 29 percent support, and believes it has a chance to overcome the far right and form its own government. The alliance wants to reverse a number of measures that the Macron government has introduced over the past seven years, such as the increase in the legal retirement age.
It will be an uphill battle for Macron’s center party and its allies. They are in third place in the polls, with around 20 percent support, and are widely expected to lose many of their current 250 seats.
3. The results of the first round may provide an incomplete picture of the direction of the election outcome
In 2022, Macron’s centrist coalition and the left were neck and neck in the first round of voting, ahead of all other parties, with about a quarter of the votes each. A week later, both parties were still ahead of the competition, but Macron’s coalition won almost 250 seats and the left won fewer than 150 seats.
In other words, while the first round of voting is an indicator of what the final results may be, it is not a perfect predictor.
